Analyzing the Causal Effect of Non-Performing Financing on ROA and ROE Profitability: New evidence from PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk

Mukhlis M. Ali; Musrizal Musrizal; Mirza Murni; Hismendi Hismendi; Muhammad Zarkani

doi:10.56806/jh.v7i3.491

Authors

Mukhlis M. Ali Universitas Almuslim, Matang Glumpang Dua, Bireun
Musrizal Musrizal Universitas Almuslim, Matang Glumpang dua, Bireun
Mirza Murni Universitas Muhammadiyah Aceh, Banda Aceh
Hismendi Hismendi Politeknik Negeri Lhokseumawe
Muhammad Zarkani Sekolah Menengah Pertama Swasta Islam Darul Ulum, Bireun

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56806/jh.v7i3.491

Keywords:

Bank Syariah Indonesia, NPF, Profitability;, ECM, Granger Causality

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the short-term, long-term, and causal relationships between non-performing financing and profitability at PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk (BSI). Observations were conducted using secondary data from quarterly financial statements spanning from Q1-2021 to Q2-2026 (n=22). The research variables include Non-Performing Financing (NPF) as the financing risk indicator, alongside Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) as profitability indicators. The data analysis methods employ the Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger Causality Test, processed through EViews software. The Johansen cointegration test results indicate a stable, long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. Furthermore, the ECM estimation models prove that in the short term, NPF has a negative and significant effect on ROA and ROE. The Error Correction Term (ECT) value demonstrates a disequilibrium adjustment speed of 41.2 percent per quarter for the ROA model, while the ECT for the ROE model is 38.5 percent, indicating a relatively rapid adjustment. Additionally, the Granger causality test confirms a one-way causality where NPF drives the movements of ROA and ROE, but not vice versa. It is recommended that BSI management tighten their digital financing risk mitigation systems to maintain long-term banking profitability stability.

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